[2022-10-23] 经济学人 - 继任者何在
![]() The longer Xi Jinping clings to power, the harder it will be to engineer an orderly transition
习近平执政时间越长，越难安排有序过渡
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THE EMPEROR Qin Shi Huang is celebrated for unifying China, starting its Great Wall and building himself a vast mausoleum, guarded by an army of terracotta warriors. Less widely known is what happened after he died in 210BC on a tour of eastern China. According to the historian Sima Qian, aides concealed the death until the imperial entourage reached the capital, in order to stop his eldest son and heir from taking power. They had food sent to the royal carriage and handled business from there as before. Carts of fish were placed nearby to mask the corpse’s stench. The ruse paid off at first. The eldest son committed suicide and a younger one, backed by the scheming aides, took the throne. But he proved weak. Within four years he was dead and the Qin dynasty collapsed.
秦始皇以统一中国而闻名，修建了长城，并为自己建造了一座巨大的陵墓，由兵马俑守卫。 不太为人所知的是他在公元前 210 年在中国东部巡回演出中去世后发生的事情。 据史学家司马迁记载，为了阻止他的长子和继承人掌权，他的侍从隐瞒了他的死讯，直到皇室的随从到达了京城。 他们将食物送到皇家马车上，并像以前一样从那里处理事务。 鱼车被放置在附近以掩盖尸体的恶臭。 这个诡计起初得到了回报。 长子自缢身亡，小子在诡计多端的幕僚的支持下继位。 但事实证明他很虚弱。 不到四年，他就死了，秦朝灭亡了。
Imperial Chinese history is littered with succession sagas tainted by bloodshed and skulduggery. Communist China was not much better for its first six decades. When Hu Jintao handed power to Xi Jinping in 2012 after ten years in office, it was the first complete, orderly leadership transition since the revolution in 1949. A decade later, however, Mr Xi is set to be granted a third five-year term—breaching the norms Mr Hu helped to establish—after the Communist Party’s congress ends on October 22nd. And with no end to the Xi era in sight, China is once again confronting questions that have plagued its history. How does an all-powerful leader retire? And what happens if one suddenly dies or is incapacitated?
中华帝国的历史上充斥着被流血和欺诈所玷污的继承传奇。 共产主义中国在头六个十年里也好不了多少。 胡锦涛在执政十年后于 2012 年将权力移交给习近平，这是自 1949 年革命以来首次全面、有序的领导层交接。然而，十年后，习近平将获得第三个五年任期 ——违反胡先生帮助建立的规范——在10月22日共产党代表大会结束后。 习近平时代没有尽头，中国再次面临困扰其历史的问题。 一个全能的领导者如何退休？ 如果一个人突然死亡或失去能力，会发生什么？
China’s succession norms were admittedly flimsy and mostly unwritten. Deng Xiaoping, who took power in 1978, introduced them to protect against Mao-era despotism and Soviet-style gerontocracy. That did not stop him from wielding huge power almost until his death in 1997, aged 92. His successor, Jiang Zemin, also meddled in politics long after retiring. Some see 2012 as an anomaly. Yet the partial institutionalisation of succession, combined with collective leadership, provided enough stability to underpin an extraordinary economic expansion. With the shift back to one-man rule, some scholars now foresee succession problems common to other modern-day autocracies—as well as China’s own emperors.
中国的继任规范无疑是脆弱的，而且大多是不成文的。 1978 年上台的邓小平介绍他们是为了防止毛泽东时代的专制主义和苏联式的老年统治。 这并没有阻止他掌握巨大的权力，直到他在 1997 年去世，享年 92 岁。他的继任者江泽民在退休后很长时间也插手了政治。 一些人认为 2012 年是一个异常。 然而，继承的部分制度化，加上集体领导，提供了足够的稳定性来支撑非凡的经济扩张。 随着回归独裁统治，一些学者现在预见到其他现代专制国家以及中国自己的皇帝都会遇到的继承问题。
Among such scholars is Erica Frantz at Michigan State University, who has compiled and analysed data on 301 authoritarian regimes from 1946 to 2020. She and her colleagues conclude that as autocrats concentrate power in their own hands, they tend to extend their own tenure—often considering themselves indispensable and fearing elite recriminations if they retire. But that often comes at the expense of the regime they represent. “These choices that Xi Jinping is making are positive for him in the short term, but in terms of the longer time horizon, they are elevating the risk that the regime will see instability and perhaps an earlier collapse,” says Ms Frantz.
其中包括密歇根州立大学的埃里卡·弗兰茨（Erica Frantz），她收集并分析了 1946 年至 2020 年期间 301 个威权政权的数据。她和她的同事得出结论，当独裁者将权力集中在自己手中时，他们往往会延长自己的任期——通常 认为自己不可或缺，并担心退休后会受到精英的指责。 但这往往是以牺牲他们所代表的政权为代价的。 “习近平做出的这些选择在短期内对他来说是积极的，但从长远来看，它们正在增加该政权将出现不稳定甚至更早崩溃的风险，”弗兰茨女士说。
One way for authoritarian regimes to enhance their resilience is to establish rigid term limits. The best example is Mexico’s Institutional Revolutionary Party, which enforced a one-term cap on the presidency while in power from 1929 to 2000. That is rare, though. Another way is to designate a successor, clearly and early. But autocrats other than monarchs often avoid that, even when old or sick. Some fear the elite will reject their choice, as when Zimbabwe’s Robert Mugabe tried to hand power to his wife in 2017. Others worry that the anointed heir will try to seize power prematurely, as Mao’s second one, Lin Biao, was accused of doing in 1971.
威权政权增强其弹性的一种方法是建立严格的任期限制。 最好的例子是墨西哥的体制革命党，它在 1929 年至 2000 年执政期间对总统职位实行一届上限。不过，这种情况很少见。 另一种方法是尽早明确指定继任者。 但除君主以外的独裁者经常避免这样做，即使是在年老或生病的时候。 一些人担心精英会拒绝他们的选择，比如津巴布韦的罗伯特·穆加贝在 2017 年试图将权力交给他的妻子。其他人担心这位受膏的继承人会试图过早夺取权力，因为毛的第二任总统林彪被指控在 1971 年。
Another concern for autocrats is that designating a successor implies an intention to step down imminently, limiting their options and undermining their authority. That is a more likely rationale for Mr Xi, who did not elevate a potential heir to the Politburo Standing Committee—the top leadership body—at the previous congress, as earlier norms required. Two or more next-generation Chinese leaders might be on the new Standing Committee to be unveiled on October 23rd. But none is considered a successor and Mr Xi, now 69, is widely thought to be planning another ten years in power, if not longer.
独裁者的另一个担忧是，指定继任者意味着打算立即下台，限制他们的选择并削弱他们的权威。 对于习近平来说，这是一个更有可能的理由，他没有按照早先的规范要求在上届代表大会上提拔潜在的政治局常委——最高领导机构——的接班人。 10 月 23 日，新一届常务委员会成员可能会有两位或更多的下一代中国领导人。 但没有人被认为是继任者，现年 69 岁的习近平被广泛认为计划再执政十年，如果不是更长的话。
Although that may foster stability by clearly signalling Mr Xi’s intent, it also increases the risk that he dies or becomes seriously ill while in office. Democracies can obviously face such problems too: America’s current president is 79. Unlike America, though, China has no clear line of succession or procedures for filling unplanned leadership vacancies. An autocrat’s sudden death or incapacitation seldom leads to regime collapse in the short term. The elite usually coalesces around a replacement to protect its own interests. But it can cause infighting. A bitter power struggle erupted in China even before Mao’s death in 1976. Ill health, often concealed from the public, can also cause the kind of paralysis that plagued the Kremlin under its hospital-bound leaders Yuri Andropov and Konstantin Chernenko.
尽管这可能会通过明确表明习近平的意图来促进稳定，但这也增加了他在任期间死亡或重病的风险。 民主国家显然也可能面临这样的问题：美国现任总统今年 79 岁。不过，与美国不同的是，中国没有明确的继任路线或填补计划外领导职位空缺的程序。 一个独裁者的突然死亡或丧失能力很少会在短期内导致政权崩溃。 精英们通常会围绕一个替代者联合起来以保护自己的利益。 但它可能导致内讧。 甚至在毛泽东于 1976 年去世之前，中国就爆发了一场激烈的权力斗争。健康状况不佳，通常对公众隐瞒，也可能导致克里姆林宫在其住院领导人尤里·安德罗波夫和康斯坦丁·契尔年科领导下的那种瘫痪状态。
Mr Xi appears in fine enough fettle. But as a portly former smoker who was a local official in a period when regular banqueting and heavy drinking were de rigueur, he would be lucky to have avoided some associated ailments. And there have been occasional rumours of ill health, especially after he appeared to walk with a slight limp on a visit to Europe in 2019. The speech he gave at the congress on October 16th was about 90 minutes shorter than his three-and-a-half-hour marathon in 2017. Among the retired leaders on stage (many of whom now forgo the black hair dye they used in office), a white-haired Mr Hu (79) appeared markedly more frail than at past appearances—a reminder of how mortality could catch up with Mr Xi over the next decade.
习先生看上去很健壮。 但作为一名肥胖的前吸烟者，在定期宴会和酗酒成为当地官员的时期，他很幸运能够避免一些相关的疾病。 并且偶尔有关于身体不好的传言，尤其是在他 2019 年访问欧洲时出现轻微跛行之后。他在 10 月 16 日的大会上发表的演讲比他的三加一短约 90 分钟。 - 2017 年半小时马拉松。在台上的退休领导人中（他们中的许多人现在放弃了在办公室使用的黑色染发剂），一位白发苍苍的胡先生（79 岁）显得比以往更加虚弱——提醒人们 未来十年死亡率如何赶上习近平。
If Mr Xi’s health endures, there is still time for him to identify one or more potential successors, possibly at the next congress in 2027 or the one after. But whoever replaces him will inevitably struggle to match his authority, especially if nominated relatively late. That is one reason why Nicolás Maduro, Venezuela’s president, has had trouble filling the shoes of Hugo Chávez, who named him as successor just three months before dying in 2013. China’s next leader will face an elite dominated by Xi loyalists and highly invested in the status quo—with no clear norms for how long to stay in power. “There will be power fragmentation and struggle after Xi’s rule,” predicts Yang Zhang of American University in Washington. “Without basic rules, succession means struggle. It’s just about when, and who will be involved.”
如果习近平的健康状况持续下去，他还有时间确定一位或多位潜在继任者，可能在 2027 年或之后的下一届代表大会上。 但无论谁接替他，都将不可避免地难以与他的权威相匹敌，尤其是在提名相对较晚的情况下。 这就是委内瑞拉总统尼古拉斯·马杜罗难以接替乌戈·查韦斯的原因之一，后者在 2013 年去世前三个月就任命他为继任者。中国的下一任领导人将面临由习近平的拥护者主导的精英阶层，并在 现状——对于掌权多长时间没有明确的规范。 华盛顿美国大学的张扬预测说：“习近平执政后将出现权力分裂和斗争。” “没有基本规则，继承就意味着斗争。 这只是关于何时以及谁将参与其中。”
Research on China’s emperors reaches some similar conclusions. Yuhua Wang of Harvard University has compiled data on 282 emperors across 49 dynasties. He found that dynasties lasted for 70 years on average and the most common cause of collapse was elite rebellion. About half of all emperors died naturally. But identifying a successor made an emperor 64% less likely to be deposed. And their chances of dying naturally and preserving their dynasty increased further if they appointed an heir within five years of taking power—a similar timescale to the succession norms that Mr Xi is dismantling.
对中国皇帝的研究也得出了一些类似的结论。 哈佛大学的王玉华收集了49个朝代282位皇帝的数据。 他发现王朝平均持续70年，最常见的崩溃原因是精英叛乱。 大约一半的皇帝自然而然地死去。 但确定继任者使皇帝被废黜的可能性降低了 64%。 如果他们在掌权后五年内任命继承人，他们自然死亡和保留王朝的机会会进一步增加——这与习近平正在废除的继承规范类似。
Mr Xi may not have crunched the data in the same way. But he displays an avid interest in China’s imperial past, frequently quoting from historical texts. Mao, whom Mr Xi emulates in so many ways, was also a fan of China’s ancient history. He often referred to the “Zizhi Tongjian”, a chronicle published in 1084 that recounts the lessons learned from previous Chinese emperors. That did not help him engineer a smooth succession. Of his heirs, one died in prison, another was killed in a plane crash after a failed coup attempt, and the last was toppled after just two years in power. Perhaps Mr Xi will fare better. But the longer he clings to power, history suggests, the harder that becomes.
习近平可能没有以同样的方式处理数据。 但他对中国的帝国历史表现出浓厚的兴趣，经常引用历史文献。 习近平在很多方面都效仿毛泽东，他也是中国古代历史的粉丝。 他经常提到《资治通鉴》，这是一部于 1084 年出版的编年史，讲述了中国历代皇帝的教训。 这并没有帮助他设计出顺利的继任者。 在他的继承人中，一人死于狱中，另一人在未遂政变后死于飞机失事，最后一人在执政仅两年后被推翻。 也许习近平会过得更好。 但历史表明，他执掌权力的时间越长，就越难。标红字体均为楼主更改，与原文作者无关。再有不到6个小时，就能揭晓常委席位了。目前来看，李强极有可能跨过副总理职位直接晋升到总理。那么，对于在中国的中产和伪中产们，将是灭顶之灾！
应润则润
放弃幻想，准备逃命。目前来看最好的方式就是留学，哪怕是去国外先读语言也无所谓。人先出去最重要。如果能力不够就不要想着美加澳这种第一阶梯了，时不待我，其他小国哪怕是东南亚和南美小国也有很多机会。
榴友们，扪心自问一下：
你孩子的未来重要还是给你父母养老送终重要
有人说，那我一没钱二没学历，我怎么办？
你说呢？
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