[2022-06-17] WaPo - 观点: 中国的军事扩张正达到一个危险的临界点

 

Opinion  China’s military expansion is reaching a dangerous tipping point
By Josh Rogin
Columnist
June 16, 2022 at 4:49 p.m. EDT
观点 中国的军事扩张正达到一个危险的临界点
Josh Rogin
专栏作家
2022 年 6 月 16 日下午 4:49 美东时间

 

Top military leaders from the United States and China met last weekend at a forum in Singapore, where they attempted to manage mounting tensions between the superpowers. But throughout Asia, there’s growing fear that China’s drastic military expansion will soon result in Chinese regional military superiority, which could embolden Beijing to start a war over Taiwan.
上周末，美国和中国的高级军事领导人在新加坡的一个论坛上会面，他们试图管理超级大国之间日益加剧的紧张局势。 但在整个亚洲，人们越来越担心中国的急剧军事扩张将很快导致中国在地区军事上取得优势，这可能会鼓励北京对台湾发动战争。

That sense of urgency was palpable at last week’s Shangri-La Dialogue, an annual conference of diplomats, officials and experts from across Asia, organized by the London-based International Institute for Strategic Studies. Over three days of discussions a common sentiment emerged: China is racing to become the dominant military power in Asia in the next few years — and if it succeeds, Beijing is likely to use force to attempt to subdue Taiwan’s democracy. Russia’s attack on Ukraine has dispelled any notion that revisionist dictatorships can be deterred by anything short of a superior opposing military force.
这种紧迫感在上周由总部位于伦敦的国际战略研究所组织的亚洲各地外交官、官员和专家年度会议香格里拉对话中显而易见。 在为期三天的讨论中，出现了一种共同情绪：中国正竞相在未来几年成为亚洲的军事主导力量——如果成功，北京很可能会使用武力试图制服台湾的民主。 俄罗斯对乌克兰的攻击打消了任何一种观念，即修正主义独裁政权可以被任何没有优势的敌对军事力量所阻止。

In recent years, Chinese President Xi Jinping has said that China plans to achieve military parity with the United States in Asia by 2027. As the Chinese military advances in both technology and territorial presence, leaders in the People’s Liberation Army are now openly threatening to attack Taiwan and promising to fight anyone who attempts to intervene. Beijing is speeding up its plans, and the United States risks falling behind.
近年来，中国国家主席希望表示，中国计划到 2027 年在亚洲实现与美国的军事对等。随着中国军队在技术和领土存在方面的进步，中国人民解放军领导人现在公开威胁要发动攻击 台湾并承诺打击任何试图干预的人。 北京正在加快其计划，美国可能会落后。

In Singapore, I interviewed Adm. John C. Aquilino, the head of U.S. Indo-Pacific Command, who described what he’s seeing as “the largest military buildup in history” — with growing Chinese arsenals of both conventional and nuclear weapons. Aquilino said Beijing is attempting to establish regional hegemony and change the international order in Asia. China wants to be in a position to dictate the rules and use its military without fearing any constraints.
在新加坡，我采访了美国印太司令部司令约翰·C·阿奎利诺上将，他描述了他所看到的“历史上最大规模的军事集结”——中国的常规武器和核武器不断增加。 阿奎利诺说，北京正试图建立地区霸权，改变亚洲的国际秩序。 中国希望能够制定规则并在不担心任何限制的情况下使用其军队。

“I only see their efforts accelerating,” he said. “I see advanced capabilities that are being delivered more quickly than we would have expected. … Their goal is to have parity with the United States to ensure that they can’t be deterred.”
“我只看到他们的努力在加速，”他说。 “我看到先进功能的交付速度比我们预期的要快。 ......他们的目标是与美国平起平坐，以确保他们不会被吓倒。”

China is building the capability to use nuclear blackmail to deter a U.S. intervention if it invades Taiwan, following Russia’s model. China’s regional military presence is expanding, including a secret naval base in Cambodia and a secret military cooperation agreement with the Solomon Islands. China has developed new technologies, including hypersonic missiles and antisatellite lasers, to keep the U.S. military at bay in a Taiwan scenario. And now, China no longer recognizes the Taiwan Strait as international waters.
按照俄罗斯的模式，如果中国入侵台湾，中国正在建立使用核讹诈来阻止美国干预的能力。 中国在地区的军事存在正在扩大，包括在柬埔寨的一个秘密海军基地以及与所罗门群岛的秘密军事合作协议。 中国开发了新技术，包括高超音速导弹和反卫星激光器，以在台湾的情况下阻止美军。 而现在，中国不再承认台湾海峡为国际水域。

China’s increased military confidence is reflected in its ever more belligerent rhetoric. After meeting with Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin in Singapore, China’s Minister of Defense Wei Fenghe gave a speech in which he promised, “China will definitely realize its reunification” with Taiwan. If anyone tries to stand in the way, he went on, “We will not hesitate to fight. We will fight at all costs.”
中国日益增强的军事信心反映在其越来越好战的言辞中。 中国国防部长魏凤和在新加坡与国防部长劳埃德·奥斯汀会面后发表讲话，承诺“中国一定会实现与台湾的统一”。 如果有人想挡道，他继续说：“我们将毫不犹豫地战斗。 我们将不惜一切代价战斗。”

In his speech, Austin attempted to reassure the region that the United States was committed to maintaining its leadership in Asia. But diplomats and experts in Singapore could not help noticing a gap between what the United States is saying and the resources Washington is committing to the effort.
奥斯汀在讲话中试图向该地区保证，美国致力于保持其在亚洲的领导地位。 但新加坡的外交官和专家不禁注意到美国所说的与华盛顿承诺投入的资源之间存在差距。

New research investments the Pentagon is making today won’t bear fruit for several years. U.S. shipbuilding plans are woefully underfunded. The United States’ new trilateral alliance with Australia and the United Kingdom (known as AUKUS) won’t result in providing Australia with nuclear submarines until the late 2030s.
五角大楼今天进行的新研究投资在几年内都不会结出果实。 美国的造船计划资金严重不足。 美国与澳大利亚和英国的新三边联盟（称为 AUKUS）要到 2030 年代后期才会向澳大利亚提供核潜艇。

China is working on a shorter timeline. Aquilino wouldn’t volunteer an exact date for when China might surpass U.S. military power in Asia, but he called the 2020s “the decade of concern.” His predecessor at Indo-Pacific Command, Adm. Philip S. Davidson, testified to the Senate Armed Services Committee in March that the threat of China invading Taiwan will become critical in “the next six years.” With 2027 being the final year of Xi’s expected (and unprecedented) third five-year term, it gives him a personal deadline for attempting reunification.
中国正在制定更短的时间表。 阿奎利诺不愿透露中国何时可能在亚洲超越美国军事力量的确切日期，但他称 2020 年代是“令人担忧的十年”。 他在印太司令部的前任菲利普·戴维森上将在 3 月向参议院军事委员会作证说，中国入侵台湾的威胁将在“未来六年”变得至关重要。 2027 年是希望预期的（也是史无前例的）第三个五年任期的最后一年，这给了他个人尝试统一的最后期限。

Indo-Pacific Command estimated in a May report to Congress that the region needs about $67 billion in new military investment between 2024 and 2027 to maintain the U.S. comparative military advantage over China. The budget is already behind schedule. In April, Indo-Pacific Command submitted a list of unfunded items that totals $1.5 billion for 2023 alone.
印度太平洋司令部在 5 月份提交给国会的报告中估计，该地区在 2024 年至 2027 年期间需要约 670 亿美元的新军事投资，以保持美国对中国的比较军事优势。 预算已经落后于计划。 4 月，印太司令部提交了一份无资金支持项目清单，仅 2023 年就总计 15 亿美元。

Maintaining the U.S. military advantage in the Indo-Pacific region will be neither easy nor cheap. Urgent tasks include dispersing more equipment and personnel to more places, hardening existing outposts such as Guam, increasing training and equipping of allies, and drastically increasing military support to Taiwan for its self-defense.
保持美国在印太地区的军事优势既不容易也不便宜。 紧急任务包括将更多设备和人员分散到更多地方，加强关岛等现有前哨基地，增加对盟友的训练和装备，以及大幅增加对台湾自卫的军事支持。

Meeting military escalation with escalation brings real risks that must be managed, not ignored. But the costs of war if China concludes it can take Taiwan easily would be exponentially higher. The United States doesn’t have the luxury of waiting until the next decade to counter China’s military expansion in Asia. As George Washington said in his first speech to Congress in 1790, “To be prepared for war is one of the most effectual means of preserving peace.”
以升级应对军事升级带来了必须管理而不是忽视的真正风险。 但是，如果中国断定它可以轻松拿下台湾，战争成本将成倍增加。 美国没有等到下一个十年来对抗中国在亚洲的军事扩张的奢侈。 正如乔治华盛顿 1790 年在国会的第一次演讲中所说，“为战争做好准备是维护和平的最有效手段之一。”

 

 

 

 

 

 

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