[2022-07-15] WaPo - 中国是否陷入了自己的抵押贷款危机？

 

Analysis by Shuli Ren | Bloomberg
July 14, 2022 at 6:40 p.m. EDT
任淑丽分析 | 彭博社
2022 年 7 月 14 日下午 6:40 美东时间

 

[b]敞口，金融概念，即开盘的意思，指买入一种货币，同时卖出另一种货币的行为。 金融市场中的意思。 人们说敞口100万美元，意思是开盘100万美元，可指买入或卖出100万美元。 “敞口”在金融领域的意思。

It is spreading like wildfire. Homebuyers in China are refusing to pay the mortgage on properties they’ve bought but that their financially strapped developers can’t finish. Some say that they will only resume payments when construction restarts.
它像野火一样蔓延。 中国的购房者拒绝为他们购买的房产支付抵押贷款，但他们财务拮据的开发商无法交楼。 有人说，只有在施工重新开始时，他们才会恢复付款。

The protest involved more than 100 delayed projects as of July 13, up from 58 projects just one day earlier. The frustrated buyers accuse the developers of misusing sales proceeds and the banks of failing to safeguard their loans.
截至 7 月 13 日，抗议活动涉及 100 多个延迟项目，而一天前只有 58 个项目。 沮丧的买家指责开发商滥用销售收入，银行未能保护他们的贷款。

China has never seen anything like this. As in the US — until the 2007 subprime crisis — the possibility of troubles in the mortgage market was vanishingly small.
中国从未见过这样的事情。 正如在美国——直到 2007 年次贷危机——抵押贷款市场出现问题的可能性微乎其微。

But this mortgage strike isn’t entirely unpredictable. Homebuyers have every reason to be angry. Most of the projects were begun by developers who have defaulted. China Evergrande Group led the pack, accounting for an estimated 35% of the total projects that faced mortgage revolts, data compiled by CLSA shows. One such project in eastern Jiangsu province was launched before the Covid-19 pandemic. Construction has been suspended since last August, while property values in its neighborhood has come down by about 10%.
但这次抵押贷款罢工并非完全不可预测。 购房者完全有理由生气。 大多数项目都是由违约的开发商开始的。 里昂证券汇编的数据显示，中国恒大集团处于领先地位，估计占面临抵押贷款反叛的项目总数的 35%。 江苏省东部的一个这样的项目是在武汉肺炎大流行之前启动的。 自去年 8 月以来，建筑一直处于暂停状态，而其附近的房地产价值已下跌约 10%。

 

In other words, not only did the affected households see their wealth dip, they can’t move in and enjoy their new apartments either. Over the years, with consent of local governments, the likes of Evergrande and Country Garden Holdings Co. fed the residential housing boom through a so-called pre-sales model: Apartments are bought long before they are completed. Now the builders don’t have money to finish these projects.
换句话说，受影响的家庭不仅看到他们的财富下降，他们也无法搬入并享受他们的新公寓。 多年来，在当地政府的同意下，恒大和碧桂园等公司通过所谓的预售模式助长了住宅热潮：公寓在完工前很久就被购买了。 现在建筑商没有钱来完成这些项目。

Granted, developers’ debt woes were met with protests in the past, from suppliers, employees, all the way to hapless retail investors who had bought their wealth-management offerings. But this new development is something entirely different. It opens a Pandora’s box and poses direct threat to the stability of Chinese banks. The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development met with financial regulators and major  banks this week to discuss the mortgage boycotts, Bloomberg News reported Thursday.
诚然，开发商的债务问题在过去曾遭到过抗议，从供应商、员工，一直到购买了他们的财富管理产品的倒霉散户投资者。 但这种新的发展是完全不同的。 它打开了潘多拉的盒子，对中资银行的稳定构成直接威胁。 据彭博社周四报道，住房和城乡建设部本周与金融监管机构和主要银行会面，讨论抵制抵押贷款问题。

Unless President Xi Jinping’s government stops this stampede, a collapse of the banking system on the scale of Lehman Brothers Holdings in 2008 is very much in the cards. China is unprepared for such a big chunk of its bank loans to go sour. 
除非希望主席的政府停止这种踩踏事件，否则 2008 年雷曼兄弟控股公司规模的银行系统崩溃是非常有可能的。 中国对如此大的银行贷款变坏毫无准备。

According to Autonomous Research, banks have about 62 trillion yuan ($9.2 trillion) of exposure to the property sector. More than half is in the form of mortgage loans. At China Construction Bank Corp., one of the world’s largest banks, mortgages account for more than 20% of its total assets.
根据 Autonomous Research 的数据，银行在房地产领域的敞口约为 62 万亿元人民币（9.2 万亿美元）。 一半以上是按揭贷款的形式。 在中国建设银行，全球最大的银行之一，抵押贷款占其总资产的 20% 以上。

Until this week, China’s middle class were excellent customers, dutifully paying their monthly bills. The government’s social credit system — a national credit rating and borrowing blacklist — has worked well; bad credit can even hamper one’s ability to take high-speed rails. But what if some are just fed up and willing to walk away from their obligations?
直到本周，中国的中产阶级都是优秀的客户，尽职尽责地支付每月的账单。 政府的社会信用体系——国家信用评级和借贷黑名单——运行良好； 不良信用甚至会影响一个人乘坐高铁的能力。 但是，如果有些人只是受够了并愿意摆脱他们的义务呢？

We’re not talking about one or two delinquent developers. In the past year, 28 of the top 100 developers have defaulted or asked their debtholders for extensions, data compiled by CLSA shows. Collectively, they account for about 20% of China’s total property sales. Money is even tighter now. In the first half, property sales plummeted 72% from a year ago, further eroding their cash flow.
我们不是在谈论一两个拖欠的开发人员。 里昂证券汇编的数据显示，在过去一年中，前 100 名开发商中有 28 家违约或要求其债权人延期。 它们合计约占中国房地产总销售额的 20%。 现在钱更紧了。 上半年，房地产销售比一年前暴跌 72%，进一步侵蚀了他们的现金流。

A CLSA monthly survey on the current status of Evergrande projects gives us a glimpse of how many unfinished sites there are across China. As of June, over half of Evergrande’s projects were under construction halts. The broker reckons that about 840 billion yuan in mortgages are tied to abandoned sites across China.
里昂证券每月对恒大项目现状的调查让我们一瞥中国有多少未完工的地块。 截至6月，恒大一半以上的项目处于停工状态。 该经纪人估计，约有 8400 亿元的抵押贷款与中国各地的废弃场地有关。

It is worth asking how we even managed to get to this point, especially for a government that is obsessed with stability.
值得一问的是，我们是如何做到这一点的，尤其是对于一个痴迷于稳定的政府而言。

All we have seen is policy inertia. Developers have been in distress for more than a year now, but there has been no progress in restructuring their finances. Local officials have been unwilling to make difficult decisions, write off bad debt and reach resolutions. Unable to shed financial burdens, builders can’t focus on operations. They become zombies, and their construction sites turn into ghost towns.
我们所看到的只是政策惯性。 开发商已经陷入困境一年多，但在重组他们的财务方面没有任何进展。 地方官员一直不愿做出艰难的决定、勾销坏账和达成解决方案。 由于无法减轻财务负担，建筑商无法专注于运营。 他们变成了僵尸，他们的建筑工地变成了鬼城。

In 2008, I worked at Lehman Brothers in New York and witnessed first-hand how the subprime mortgage crisis dragged down the venerable bank — and threatened the entire industry. This environment is starting to feel eerily similar.
2008 年，我在纽约的雷曼兄弟公司工作，亲眼目睹了次贷危机如何拖垮这家历史悠久的银行，并威胁到整个行业。 这种环境开始变得异常相似。[/b]

标红字体均为楼主更改，与原文作者无关。

作为家里蹲大学地下室系撸鸡巴方向的研究生，金融实在不是我的强项。翻译有错误的地方大家就将就着看吧。

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